The Intelligence Age is a blog post by Sam Altman that declares the overall success of deep learning as a means to achieve AGI. It indirectly underscores the ability of scaling laws to predict when large language models will reach a level of performance that meets some definition of AGI.
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It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!);1
A bit lofty, but what do I know?
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Deep learning worked, got predictably better with scale, and we dedicated increasing resources to it.1
This speaks to the observation that frontier models will continue to need bigger, faster, and more expensive supercomputers to improve.
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humanity discovered an algorithm that could really, truly learn any distribution of data (or really, the underlying “rules” that produce any distribution of data).1