Superintelligence is an artificial intelligence that outperforms humans in all areas. It is not really clear to me how this will be quantified and strikes me as something like the Turing test—easy to define, hard to concretely assess.
In practice, will not be a singular LLM but instead a reasoning model that applies a bunch of techniques and chews on a problem for a period of time (see System 2 thinking).
In May 2023, OpenAI said that superintelligence might be achievable within ten years.1
In September 2024, OpenAI’s estimate shortened to “a few thousand days,” or the shorter end of a decade.2